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Florida's hurricane vulnerability
Florida is no stranger to hurricanes. The storms form in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits and can move in unpredictable ways. As the following tracking charts indicate, some years experience more activity than others. Hurricane experts predict the next decade will be much more active than the 1980s and 1990s.
Forecasters are predicting above-average hurricane activity in 2011, with nine hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30 and five of them developing into major hurricanes.
According to Colorado State University’s Hurricane Forecast Team, there is a 48 percent chance a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast. The long-term average is 31 percent.
This year, the team also issued landfall probabilities for individual counties. According to the forecasters, there’s a 1.9 percent chance one or more hurricanes will make landfill in Volusia County, and a 0.5 percent change a major hurricane will make landfall. Those are better odds than Monroe County received; forecasters gave it the highest chances of hurricane activity in Florida, with a 27 percent chance of at least one hurricane and a 13.4 chance of a major hurricane.
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(Source: Barnes, J. (2000) "The History of
Florida Hurricanes.")
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